SPX – S&P 500 Index

Bounced off the long-term channel top to retest the short-term bullish channel’s lower trendline. The technical outlook remains negative, but we stay NEUTRAL awaiting pullback confirmation.

NDX – Nasdaq 100 Index

Staged an extended bounce from 28,625 support, trading within a range that could form a bearish Head & Shoulders right shoulder. Our broader stance remains BEARISH.

RUT – Russell 2000 Index

Triggered our stop-loss after yesterday’s false downside break, tracking a sharp short squeeze past the 2,885 resistance toward the next target at 2,945.

FESX – Euro Stoxx 50 Index Future

Rebounded off its flag pattern top due to late price/volume divergence following the Wall Street rally. We await confirmation of an extension above the 6,155 resistance.

FIB1! – FTSE MIB Futures

Remained erratic but held inside its macro black ascending channel. We are NEUTRAL while the index consolidates within the 49,345–50,690 lateral range.

DAX – DAX Index

Approaching the completion of the right shoulder of a potential bullish Head & Shoulders pattern. A clear break below 23,835/23,710 would completely invalidate this setup.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

Sharp correction is finally completing the wedge structure near its apex. A decisive daily close below 4.434% will officially activate our BEARISH scenario.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Retraced back to the upper boundary of its short-term descending channel and 1.158 resistance. The technical framework remains structurally BEARISH, using this level as a stop.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

Decisively broke below its ascending trendline, worsening the technical outlook. We reactivate our BEARISH scenario with the next targets projected at 129/125.07.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

Corrected to the lower boundary of its descending channel, entering a temporary wait-and-see phase. We expect further downside upon a definitive channel breakdown.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Despite the negative technical outlook, yesterday we opted to monitor a potential bounce off the upper boundary of the long-term ascending channel (drawn in black on our chart) in place since March 2020.

The effect of this bounce, observed during today’s session, was to lift the U.S. index back to the lower trendline of our short-term ascending channel (drawn in blue on our chart). This price action could be a classic pullback and, as such, might represent a purely temporary reaction. In our view, the overall technical picture remains negative; however, we prefer to wait for tomorrow’s session to confirm the validity of today’s pullback and secure a clearer indication of the short-term trend’s true direction. Consequently, we choose to maintain a NEUTRAL stance.

Nasdaq 100 Index (NASDAQ:NDX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s reaction on the Nasdaq was highly extended, so much so that it retraced back up the short-term descending channel we constructed to track the downward trend of recent days. Today’s session ended just outside the boundary of this formation.

While the overall technical outlook remains negative, the support floor in the 28625 area successfully kept the index within the 28625/29670 trading range, where the right shoulder of a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern could be developing. The circles on our chart highlight the possible shoulders and head of this probable technical structure.

We maintain our BEARISH stance because the broader technical setup remains fundamentally negative despite the upside breakout of our channel formation, which nevertheless still requires confirmation.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today delivered the anticipated price action, resulting in a correction down to the lower boundary of the descending channel we have been tracking since the onset of the oil crisis. Over the past few days, we have observed that the market is treating these current levels as a clear wait-and-see zone.

We maintain our current outlook: barring any exogenous market factors that could impact the contract’s price, we expect a further downward correction from these levels upon a definitive breakdown of the channel itself.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework During today’s session, we witnessed a downside breach of the ascending trendline we discussed yesterday. The overall technical outlook is deteriorating, prompting us to reactivate our BEARISH scenario, which we had previously paused upon the achievement of our target.

The trend is continuing its corrective trajectory, with the next key support levels projected in the 129/125.07 area. Stop 131.42 (closing)

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Following yesterday’s intraday price action, we correctly waited for the downside breach of our trendline connecting the March 30th and May 18th lows (in blu on our chart). Today’s movement brought the European future back to the upper boundary of our flag pattern.

Furthermore, the price/volume divergence we highlighted yesterday triggered an upside reaction in the contract. This upward move is not fully captured on the chart—except as a session high—since it materialized after the European cash market close, moving in tandem with the late rally across U.S. indexes. Tomorrow, we will monitor the market to verify whether this extension beyond the 6155 resistance level receives definitive confirmation.

FIB1! – FTSE MIB Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The extension of today’s movement is quite concerning and makes it difficult to discern whether the price action over the past few weeks possesses any true directionality. We continue to frame the trend of the Italian future within the ascending channel (drawn in black on our chart) which, despite apparent difficulties, still managed to contain today’s close.

We maintain our current outlook, notwithstanding the resilience of the ascending channel. Since April 14th, the Italian future—much like many other Indexes—has experienced an upward move that can be subdivided into three distinct ranges; we are currently witnessing a sideways trend within the third range, bounded between 49345 and 50690. A definitive breakout beyond either of these two levels would activate a specific directional scenario. Consequently, we maintain a NEUTRAL stance.

DAX Index (INDEX:DAX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework We are close the completion of the right shoulder of a potential bullish head and shoulders pattern (which, as previously noted, is atypical given the preceding sideways trend). We could receive confirmation of an upside reversal as early as tomorrow’s session.

Conversely, we believe that any corrective move below the 23835/23710 support zone would not only invalidate this scenario but would turn highly negative, paving the way for significantly deeper corrections.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s sharp and extended correction in the U.S. 10-Year Yield provides an initial signal that the pattern we have been tracking for a long time—the wedge—is finally completing.

We maintain our view that this is an atypical technical structure, as the trend remained confined within this formation nearly to its apex. A daily close below 4.434% would confirm the bearish breakdown, prompting us to activate our BEARISH scenario. Conversely, a potential bounce would complicate the technical setup, but the 4.434% support level remains vital for discerning the directionality of the short-term move.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s price action brings the EUR/USD cross back to the upper boundary of our short-term descending channel and right up to our resistance level in the 1.158 area.

The technical outlook remains BEARISH, and we will utilize the upper bound of the channel as our stop-loss level.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework We are triggering our stop-loss. We misinterpreted the decline of the U.S. small-cap index within our channel, as yesterday’s downside breakdown provided a false signal.

The index has surged back to its highs, staging an upside breakout through our resistance at 2885 and heading toward the next resistance area at 2945.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

• FESX (Euro Stoxx 50): Corrected within a prolonged flag compression; view remains NEUTRAL backed by positive volume divergence, while a downside breach of the blue trendline triggers a BEARISH scenario targeting 5770.

• FIB1! (FTSE MIB): Corrected below the black channel’s lower bound; maintaining a NEUTRAL stance within the 50690–49345 range, with clear breakout triggers to activate the next directional scenario.

• DAX (DAX Index): Modified the atypical pattern layout with a higher adjusted neckline at 25415 as the right shoulder forms; currently monitoring the correction with key support at 23832.

• US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Yield): Trapped near the apex of the pattern with no definitive signal; continuation within the blue channel is the most likely scenario, while a downside breakdown triggers a BEARISH outlook.

• EUR/USD: Candlestick structure confirms persistent difficulty reclaiming higher levels; a deeper retest of underlying support layers is probable, with a breach of 1.14 turning highly negative.

• RUT (Russell 2000): Activated BEARISH scenario after breaching the blue trendline, targeting the 2735 area; tracking inside a new black descending channel with a stop-loss set on a close outside of it.

• SPX (S&P 500): Closed at lows filling the 7293/7276 gap; remaining NEUTRAL despite bearish signals pending a key test of the long-term black channel’s upper bound, with a break targeting 7050/7000.

• NDX (Nasdaq 100): Activated BEARISH scenario following the downside breach of 28624, tracking inside a red descending channel toward 27590; stop-loss is placed on a channel breakout at the open.

• BRN1! (Brent Crude): Muted rebound off the green channel floor; expecting a downside breakout toward targets at 81.2, 77.0, and 64.3 unless exogenous market events intervene.

• BCOM (Bloomberg Commodity): Price action reached the key multi-month ascending trendline; a downside breach here would reactivate the BEARISH scenario targeting the immediate 129/125 area.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s price action opened exactly below our resistance area at 7295, attempted to test the highs of our ascending channel (drawn in blue), and subsequently reversed to close at its session lows, completely filling the price gap we had previously identified at 7293/7276.

While this movement by itself would undoubtedly constitute a bearish signal, we choose to wait and see how the U.S. index behaves around the upper boundary of the long-term channel (drawn in black on our chart). Yesterday, this level already tested to be a valid support floor, bouncing the index from its lows. Therefore, despite these bearish stance, we maintain a NEUTRAL scenario pending the outcome of the test on the upper bound of the black channel. In the event of a downside violation, the next targets are projected at 7050/7000.

Nasdaq 100 Index (NASDAQ:NDX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework As anticipated, upon the downside breach of the 28624 support level, we are activating our BEARISH scenario and will track the price action within the descending channel (drawn in red on our chart).

The target is relatively close by in the 27590 area, or alternatively at the upper trendline of the long-term ascending channel originating from the October 2022 lows. We had already received bearish signals yesterday, but the intraday recovery provided a demonstration of strength, causing us to hold off on activating our bearish outlook at that time. The stop-loss will be triggered upon any potential breakout of the channel itself (at the market open).

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The rebound off the lower boundary of the ascending channel (drawn in green on our chart) was not significant. We expect a downside breakout of this formation, which would drive the contract toward subsequent support levels at 81.2, 77.0, and 64.3.

Close attention should be paid to any potential counter-trend rebounds that might keep the future within the current pattern, though we believe such a development would only be triggered by exogenous market events.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework As previously anticipated, the index has reached the ascending trendline connecting the lows of December 19th, January 2nd, and February 17th.

A downside breach of this level would be highly negative and would reactivate our BEARISH scenario, even though the immediate downside targets are relatively close by in the 129/125 area.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The European Future contract registered another day of correction, fluctuating within our flag pattern. This is turning into a rather prolonged compression zone. If this chart structure indeed validates as a flag, we would expect a relatively sharp and violent upside breakout that could drive prices toward the upper boundary of our long-term channel (drawn in black on our chart).

Conversely, if the pattern fails to complete, the trend could continue to slide into the 5770/6030 range, thereby initiating a downward trajectory that could extend toward the 5460 support floor and eventually the base of the long-term black channel. To trigger a bearish scenario, we are relying on the trendline (drawn in blue on our chart); a downside breach of this line would officially activate our BEARISH outlook with a target of 5770. The technical element that leads us to believe the flag might successfully complete is a volume divergence, with rising volumes accompanying the downward trend. For now, we remain NEUTRAL.

FIB1! – FTSE MIB Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s candlestick shows a correction that extends beyond the lower boundary of our ascending channel (drawn in black on our chart). As previously noted, even though the channel is gradually losing momentum and sloping downward to realign with the inclination of the long-term trend, we continue to closely monitor our defined ranges—specifically what we refer to as the “third range” between 50690 and 49345.

Consequently, we maintain our NEUTRAL stance. We will activate our BEARISH scenario upon a definitive downside violation of the 49345 support level, whereas our BULLISH scenario will be triggered upon an upside breakout of the 50690 resistance floor.

DAX Index (INDEX:DAX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework We are modifying the potential scenario for the chart pattern we previously identified. If this formation (which we consider atypical) completes successfully, finalizing the development of the right shoulder currently in formation, it could stage an upside breakout through the neckline, which we have now adjusted higher to the 25415 area (drawn in blue on our chart).

We await further developments regarding the evolution of this correction, noting that 23832 will act as an important support level.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Still no definitive directional signal. Today’s candlestick also remains confined within the chart pattern we have been tracking since the January highs.

While the structure takes the form of a wedge, price action is trading very close to its apex. Effectively, the trend is respecting the upper trendline as resistance and the lower trendline as support. The scenario we consider most likely is the continuation of the ascending trend within our channel (drawn in blue on our chart). Conversely, a potential downside breakout of either the black trendline or the blue channel would activate our BEARISH scenario.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s candlestick continues to confirm the difficulties the EUR/USD cross is facing in reclaiming higher levels. Based on the configuration of recent candlesticks, a deeper retest of the numerous underlying support levels appears increasingly likely. A definitive downside violation of the final support floor in the 1.14 area would be highly negative.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework As anticipated yesterday, the downside breach of our ascending trendline (drawn in blue on the chart) establishes a bearish direction for the short-term trend, targeting the 2735 area.

We have constructed a descending channel (drawn in black on our chart) to guide this downward movement. An upside breakout of this channel will be utilized as our stop-loss. Consequently, we are activating our BEARISH scenario, with a stop-loss set upon a potential closing print outside the boundaries of the channel.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

• SPX (S&P 500): Filled the 7293/7274 gap after a wide swing to the long-term black trendline, closing exactly on the lower bound of the short-term blue channel; view remains NEUTRAL.

• NDX (Nasdaq 100): Massive 1,609-point intraday swing, but recovered late to close above Friday’s finish; NEUTRAL stance maintained as market nervousness requires caution.

• BRN1! (Brent Crude): Breached the blue trendline and tested the bottom of the green channel; expected to continue its descent and exit the main oil crisis formation.

• BCOM (Bloomberg Commodity): Broke the black trendline and the 131.4 support on a closing basis; now testing the December 2025 trendline, which represents its last chance to bounce.

• FESX (Euro Stoxx 50): High intraday volatility, but the 6030 support holds within a potential flag; a sideways trend is anticipated, staying NEUTRAL with resistance raised to 6155.

• FIB1! (FTSE MIB): Printed new all-time highs testing the blue trendline; despite the high volatility, both open and close stayed within the same range, confirming the NEUTRAL setup.

• DAX (DAX Index): Price action tested the temporary neckline; the outlook is unchanged pending the potential development of a more extended right shoulder and a higher neckline.

• US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Yield): Trading very close to the apex and stalling precisely on the converging trendlines; the directionality of the trend remains entirely bullish for now.

• EUR/USD: Second consecutive day of a timid reaction within an overall negative trend; our projected target has been reached, keeping the operational stance NEUTRAL.

• RUT (Russell 2000): Pronounced intraday swing with a temporary breach of the blue trendline, but the candle body closed above support, leaving the technical outlook NEUTRAL.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The U.S. index experienced a highly volatile and wide intraday trading range. It dropped to its session lows to test the upper boundary (drawn in black on our chart) of the primary long-term ascending channel originating from the March 2020 lows, completely filling the 7293/7274 price gap. From there, it staged a sharp reversal to close precisely on the lower boundary of the short-term ascending channel (drawn in blue on our chart).

Although the intraday swing was exceptionally wide, the net percentage change compared to yesterday’s close was ultimately negligible. Nonetheless, the specific structure of these recent candlesticks clearly indicates that the market is heavily driven by exogenous news flow. These external catalysts are significantly impacting sentiment, causing the U.S. benchmark to swing by roughly 250 points.

From a chart-based perspective, we reaffirm our NEUTRAL outlook. That being said, it is worth noting that despite Friday’s heavy volatility compounded by today’s wild swings, the index remains relatively close to its absolute highs, sitting only about 230 points away.

Nasdaq 100 Index (NASDAQ:NDX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The U.S. tech index also experienced a massive intraday swing, spanning 1,609 points between its session high and low. From a technical standpoint, it attempted to slip back down into what we refer to as the “first range,” but staged a late-day recovery to ultimately close above Friday’s finish.

We maintain the same technical posture. Although this late-session turnaround is an undeniable demonstration of strength, the intense intraday volatility underscores a heightened market nervousness that warrants strict caution. Therefore, pending more reassuring signals and the resumption of a clearly defined trend, we remain NEUTRAL.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework As noted over the past few days, the contract has breached its ascending trendline (drawn in blue on our chart) and subsequently tested the lower boundary of the green ascending channel. This support level represents a major technical test.

We expect the future to continue its downward trajectory, ultimately breaking below and exiting the primary chart formation that has guided its price fluctuations throughout the entire oil crisis.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Having breached the trendline (drawn in black on our chart) and, on a closing basis, the support floor in the 131.4 area, the index is now approaching the ascending trendline stemming from the December 2025 lows.

A continuation of the downward trend below this next support level would be highly negative, exposing subsequent technical targets at 129, 125, and 115.3. This area represents a “last chance” for a technical rebound; failing to hold here would push the index below its critical April 17th lows.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The European contract also experienced a wide intraday trading range, rallying up to the May 25th highs before correcting to close slightly above its opening level. Crucially, price action managed to remain above the 6030 support floor and still within what could be a developing flag pattern.

In this case as well, despite the support holding, we reaffirm our projection from previous days of a sideways consolidation trend. However, we did not anticipate these sharp intraday swings, which are generally not a constructive signal. Consequently, we maintain our NEUTRAL stance and keep the same support level intact, though we are now establishing a higher resistance level at 6155 compared to our previous outlook.

FIB1! – FTSE MIB Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The Italian contract printed new all-time highs, moving to test the trendline connecting the closing prices of April 17th, May 6th/7th, and May 25th (drawn in blue on our chart).

From a chart-based perspective, we are tracking the movement of the future within our defined “three ranges.” It is worth noting that despite today’s elevated volatility, both the opening and closing prints remained strictly within the same trading range, validating our anticipated approach to maintain a NEUTRAL stance.

DAX Index (INDEX:DAX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The technical outlook for the German index remains unchanged. The intraday volatility tested what we are temporarily considering the neckline of the bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern drawn on our chart.

It is highly possible that the latest price action represents the development of a new, more extended right shoulder, which could ultimately result in a higher neckline. We await further developments to confirm the evolution of this structure.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework We are now very close to the apex of the pattern we have described numerous times over the past few weeks. At this stage, it is difficult to validate this formation as a structural bearish wedge. Instead, we continue to observe how the yield stalls precisely on these two converging trendlines. Over the coming days, we will evaluate the directionality of the trend, which so far appears entirely bullish.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The cross logged its second consecutive day of a muted rebound. While the pair remains locked in a primary negative trend, our operational stance remains NEUTRAL since we have already achieved our previously projected target.

We are now awaiting further directional signals and will keep a close eye on all the support levels indicated on the chart.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework As highlighted in our macro reports, the small-cap index is heavily influenced by the major U.S. benchmarks, and it too experienced a very pronounced intraday swing today, temporarily breaching our blue ascending trendline tracked as a key reference support.

However, the candlestick body managed to close above this support level, leaving the overall technical picture unchanged. Consequently, we maintain our NEUTRAL stance. A definitive downside violation of this trendline would serve as a highly negative technical signal.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

• SPX (S&P 500): Weak rebound off the blue channel base with no signs of strength; the outlook remains NEUTRAL with the static support at 7348 viewed as the decisive pivot level.

• NDX (Nasdaq 100): Weak close below the midpoint of Friday’s candle body; the NEUTRAL stance is confirmed pending a breakout above 29670 or a test of critical support at 28625.

• BRN1! (Brent Crude): Intraday extension failed, confirming the tendency to breach the blue trendline to test the lower boundary of the main channel, which structurally remains bullish.

• BCOM (Bloomberg Commodity): Interlocutory candle after reaching the downside target; the black trendline and the 131.42 support form a key cluster whose breakdown would be highly negative.

• FESX (Euro Stoxx 50): Possible flag formation in development; we remain NEUTRAL awaiting a clean breakout above the 6115 resistance (Bullish trigger) or below the critical 6030 area.

• FIB1! (FTSE MIB): Fully recovered Friday’s correction, re-entering the black channel; maintaining a NEUTRAL posture while the index fluctuates within the 49345–50640 range.

• DAX (DAX Index): Atypical inverse head and shoulders partially invalidated; remaining NEUTRAL while monitoring key static support (24290) and a potential larger neckline at 25415.

• US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Yield): Price action extended to the upper bound of the black wedge near its apex; staying NEUTRAL while awaiting a definitive breakout of the pattern boundaries.

• EUR/USD: Highly muted rebound off the 1.1512 support keeping the technical picture negative; intermediate levels are being monitored ahead of the main support floor at 1.1404.

• RUT (Russell 2000): Weak reaction above the blue trendline, setting up a possible minor pullback to the broken resistance at 2887; the NEUTRAL cautious stance is confirmed.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The U.S. index staged a weak rebound off the lower boundary of our moderately ascending channel (drawn in blue on our chart). Today’s candle fails to show a meaningful market reaction to Friday’s sharp correction and is by no means a sign of strength. We are not yet entirely convinced that this level represents valid support; instead, as stated yesterday, we view the static support floor in the 7348 area as the decisive pivot.

A downside breach of this level would force a lower low relative to May 19th, breaking the short-term structure of higher highs and higher lows. This would serve as the first signal of a potential extended correction that could reach the base of the green channel—a scenario we do not favor at the moment, but one that could become a workable hypothesis if support fails to hold. Consequently, we maintain our NEUTRAL stance pending clearer directional signals.

Nasdaq 100 Index (NASDAQ:NDX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The index opened slightly above the midpoint of Friday’s candle body but ultimately closed below this level. This is not the sign of strength one might have expected following a session like Friday’s. We believe the Nasdaq needs to climb above the resistance floor in the 29670 area to deliver its first convincing directional signal.

Conversely, an extension of the correction below 28625 would provide the first signal of a potential trend reversal for a structure that, for now, remains primary bullish despite Friday’s sell-off. Our outlook remains strictly NEUTRAL given the absence of definitive directional confirmation so far. While we still view a deep, extended correction as a relatively remote hypothesis, the 28625 support floor stands as a critical pivot level.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The contract attempted an intraday extension but to no avail, with today’s candle confirming our prior analysis: a clear tendency to break below the support trendline (drawn in blue on our chart) and move to retest the lower boundary of the primary channel we have been tracking since the inception of this oil crisis.

While numerous external factors continue to influence the market, we have so far successfully synthesized the price action within this technical structure, which structurally remains bullish.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework For this index as well, today’s candle signals neither a trend reversal nor a continuation. The downside target we anticipated was already reached during Friday’s correction.

This descending trendline (drawn in black on our chart), alongside the static support floor in the 131.42 area, could now act as a highly significant initial support cluster. Any potential downside breach of this structure would serve as a highly negative technical signal.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The price action observed since May 25th could be developing into a flag pattern, although today’s intraday movement is not particularly convincing. We would look for a definitive breakout above the static resistance level in the 6115 area to confirm this chart pattern.

In that scenario, a daily open and close sustained above this threshold would trigger our BULLISH outlook. Conversely, a clean return below the 6030 mark would be highly negative. Given these conditions, we remain NEUTRAL pending more distinct directional signals.

FIB1! – FTSE MIB Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The Italian contract fully recovered Friday’s correction, remaining within what we consider the “third range” between 49345—a support floor that proved to be highly solid—and the resistance area around 50640. This is undoubtedly an encouraging signal, as the future has also re-entered the short-term ascending channel (drawn in black on our chart).

Despite these positive developments, we prefer to maintain our NEUTRAL stance, as we anticipate the index could continue to fluctuate within this consolidation range for a few more days. Ultimately, a definitive breakout from this range would provide a more reliable directional signal.

DAX Index (INDEX:DAX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s candle partially invalidates the technical scenario linked to the presence of an atypical inverse head and shoulders pattern. As previously noted, this anomaly stems from the preceding sideways consolidation trend. In any case, we will evaluate price action over the coming days for any market reactions that might alter the chart structure itself.

The first key static support floor is located at 24290, followed by 23830 and 23720. On the upside, the 25415 mark could emerge as the new neckline for a larger, more extended inverse head and shoulders formation than the one currently under observation. Given these dynamics, we firmly maintain our NEUTRAL outlook.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s price action extended up to the upper boundary of the wedge formation (drawn in black on our chart). The pattern is somewhat atypical because we are trading very close to its apex; nevertheless, the price action continues to respect these trendlines as key support and resistance levels.

In any case, we prefer to await a definitive breakout from one of these two boundaries, and for the time being, we maintain our NEUTRAL stance.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The pair tested the 1.1512 support floor today. The subsequent intraday rebound was highly muted, failing to reclaim even the midpoint of the previous session’s candlestick body.

The overall technical picture remains negative. As illustrated on the chart, multiple intermediate support layers exist ahead of the critical pivot zone in the 1.1404 area—a breakdown below which would severely deteriorate the broader technical outlook.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The U.S. small-cap index also experienced a highly muted reaction today, remaining above our trendline (drawn in blue on our chart). However, at this juncture, the technical picture appears devoid of clear directional signals.

Today’s movement could represent a minor pullback toward the level breached on Friday in the 2887 area. In this case as well, we await more convincing directional signals and maintain our NEUTRAL stance.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

• SPX (S&P 500): Broke below the 7517 support level, closing near its lows at the base of the blue channel; the outlook shifts to NEUTRAL ahead of a temporary sideways phase.

• NDX (Nasdaq 100): Also breached the 29670 support floor, closing at intraday lows; the NEUTRAL stance is confirmed moving toward a likely sideways consolidation.

• BRN1! (Brent Crude): The futures contract continues its pullback toward the blue support line and the base of the green channel, remaining highly sensitive to unexpected exogenous events.

• BCOM (Bloomberg Commodity): Reached our first downside target at 131.42; abandoned the Bearish scenario in favor of a NEUTRAL view for a potential mild rebound.

• FESX (Euro Stoxx 50): Closed at 6015, breaking below the 6030 support under pressure from U.S. rates; abandoned the Bullish scenario to return to NEUTRAL.

• FIB1! (FTSE MIB): Breached the 49460 support floor and the short-term black ascending channel; the operational view shifts to NEUTRAL in anticipation of a sideways trend.

• DAX (DAX Index): Friday’s correction completely erased the reaction on the atypical bullish inverse head and shoulders; monitoring supports for a potential target at 25970.

• US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Yield): Yield surged close to the upper bound of the black wedge pattern after the rebound; shifting back to NEUTRAL given the structural uncertainty of the formation.

• EUR/USD: Sharp downward move reaching the target of the black channel broken in May; intermediate support levels are being monitored ahead of the critical 1.1404 floor.

• RUT (Russell 2000): Extended correction below the 2890 support level down to the long-term trendline; abandoned the Bullish scenario for a strictly NEUTRAL stance.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The U.S. benchmark broke below the critical support floor in the 7517 area following a highly pronounced corrective session on Friday. The daily candle closed near its intraday lows, resting on a dynamic trendline that could serve as the lower boundary of a channel (drawn in blue on our chart) connecting the structural lows of May 6th and May 19th. This area could act as an immediate support pivot before the index risks extending lower to fill the structural gap located between 7293 and 7348 points. We do not believe this move marks the beginning of a major structural correction. As outlined in our June 2nd macro report, the shape and the behavior of the recent daily candles had already significantly elevated the risk of a violent correction. Thursday's opening print outside of our primary short-term ascending channel (drawn in black on our chart) was an early warning sign of exhaustion, despite the brief intraday recovery—a distribution signal that was far clearer on the Nasdaq, which had already prompted us to drop our Long bias and shift to a Neutral stance. Looking ahead, we anticipate a sideways consolidation phase over the coming days, with the concrete possibility of filling the downside gap before the index can gather enough momentum to resume its primary trend. Consequently, we are transitioning our outlook back to a NEUTRAL scenario as we monitor the market's reaction around these key structural supports

Nasdaq 100 Index (NASDAQ:NDX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework In Thursday’s report, we correctly abandoned our BULLISH view in favor of a Neutral scenario, triggering our trailing stop upon the downside breach of the short-term ascending channel (drawn in black on our chart). Friday’s price action subsequently broke below the support floor in the 29670 area, closing the session near its intraday lows.

While we had anticipated the potential for an extended correction, we did not expect the index to drop below the 29000 mark. We do not believe this marks the beginning of a major structural downturn, although we consider a sideways consolidation trend to be a highly possible scenario for the market moving forward. Pending clearer technical signals, we firmly maintain our NEUTRAL outlook.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework As anticipated in our previous reports, the contract is returning toward the support trendline (drawn in blue on our chart). We continue to favor an extension of this move toward the lower boundary of the primary channel (drawn in green on our chart), within which the future has fluctuated throughout the entire oil crisis. Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

Nevertheless, we remain highly mindful that this asset could be directly impacted at any moment by external, exogenous events currently unknown to the broader market.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The commodity index has reached our first target along the descending trendline (drawn in black on our chart) near the 131.42 support floor.

We expect the index could stage an initial, mild rebound from these levels. Given the density of underlying support layers directly below this area, we are abandoning our BEARISH scenario and transitioning back to a NEUTRAL stance. However, any confirmed downside breach of the 131.42 level would be highly negative and would immediately reactivate our BEARISH outlook.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Following Friday’s close, the European contract continued its correction, dropping as low as 5998 before closing at 6015, below our support floor in the 6030 area.

While the European market was less impacted by the U.S. data print, we believe the breakdown of the 6030 support, combined with the potential ripple effects that rising interest rates could have across Europe, warrants abandoning our BULLISH scenario to return to NEUTRAL. Here too, we do not view this as the onset of a long-term market correction, but rather the beginning of a new sideways consolidation phase. Consequently, pending clearer technical developments, we are transitioning our outlook back to a NEUTRAL scenario.

FIB1! – FTSE MIB Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Following Friday’s close, the Italian contract also dropped to 49400, falling below our support floor at 49460.

This signal invalidates our previous BULLISH scenario, not so much due to the failure to hold our initial support, but rather because of the downside breach of our short-term ascending channel (drawn in black on our chart). This structure had been guiding the short-term uptrend we were tracking, even as it was characterized by three clearly visible equal-amplitude trading ranges. Here too, we anticipate a sideways consolidation trend over the coming days, and for this reason, we are transitioning back to a NEUTRAL stance, pending further directional technical signals.

DAX Index (INDEX:DAX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework We remain highly focused on whether the German benchmark can successfully complete its bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern. As previously noted, this formation is highly atypical since it developed following a prolonged sideways consolidation trend rather than a traditional downtrend.

Consequently, the mild initial rebound observed off the neckline on Thursday was completely erased by Friday’s broad market correction. Chart patterns are rarely textbook-perfect; therefore, we are waiting to see how price action evolves around these levels. In the event of a successful technical rebound from current support, the geometric target projection remains anchored at 25970.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework As noted in recent days, the upside reaction in the U.S. 10-year yield was widely anticipated along the ascending trendline in place since the March 2nd lows. We are currently trading very close to the upper bound of the wedge, meaning we could now expect to encounter strong resistance at the pattern’s upper trendline.

Price action over the coming days will be decisive in determining the broader, longer-term trend. While we view a further upside expansion as the more likely scenario, we must not forget that this large wedge formation (drawn in black on our chart) structurally represents a bearish pattern in this specific context. Given this underlying uncertainty, we are shifting our outlook back to a NEUTRAL stance pending more convincing technical signals.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The pair experienced a fairly decisive downward move on Friday, reaching the target projection derived from the small channel (drawn in black on our chart) that was broken on May 15th and subsequently retested via a classic pullback maneuver.

As shown on the chart, there are several intermediate support layers before reaching the most critical support floor in the 1.1404 area. A confirmed downside breach of this key level would open up significantly negative technical scenarios for the pair.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

RUT – Russell 2000 Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Following a highly extended correction on Friday, and after breaking below the support floor in the 2890 area, the small-cap index paused directly on the trendline connecting the structural lows of March 30th and May 19th.

This level represents a “last call” for a potential technical rebound that would keep the primary long-term bullish outlook intact. However, strictly adhering to our operational rules and given the breach of the aforementioned support floor, we are abandoning our BULLISH scenario and transitioning back to a NEUTRAL stance.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

Daily & Commodity Markets Summary

Equity Indices

• S&P 500 (SPX): Opened directly on the 7517 support before recovering to close within its primary black ascending channel, though a newly introduced, shallower red channel highlights a decelerated short-term trend losing upward momentum.

• Nasdaq 100 (NDX): Exhibited a distinct loss of upward momentum to definitively break below its April ascending channel, triggering our stop loss and shifting the technical outlook to a sideways scenario until the 30,767 resistance is cleared.

• Euro Stoxx 50 (FESX): Extended from the 6031 support to the 6113 resistance for the second time in three days, closing just below the ceiling but maintaining a bullish bias poised to target the upper long-term channel at 6250.

• FTSE MIB Futures (FIB1!): Consolidated inside its third consecutive equal-amplitude trading range heading toward historic highs, preserving a bullish structure strictly managed by its short-term black channel support, with upside resistance raised to 50,640.

• DAX Index (DAX): Staged a timid initial rebound off its neckline, requiring an aggressive upward expansion to validate its highly atypical inverse head and shoulders pattern and unlock the 25,970 target projection.

• Russell 2000 (RUT): Powered back to all-time highs after a brief two-day consolidation pause, firmly confirming its bullish configuration as long as price action remains above the 2887 support level.

Commodities

• Brent Crude Oil (BRN1!): Logged a corrective session grinding toward the lower boundary of its primary channel, though a newly mapped blue trendline connecting three structural lows explains the brief four-day bounce before heading into the lower green demand zone.

• Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM): Fully confirmed yesterday’s shooting star candlestick pattern, validating the post-breakout pullback rejection at the 137 resistance and cementing a structural bearish continuation toward the 131.42 target.

Forex & Fixed Income

• U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y): Suffered a mild retracement but kept its daily candle body strictly above the lower wedge trendline, sustaining a bullish bias with the 4.434% static support acting as a critical horizontal anchor.

• Euro / U.S. Dollar (EURUSD): Resumed its short-term bearish momentum following the validated pullback rejection at the 1.166 resistance ceiling, with price action targeting the 1.158 and 1.155 structural support levels next.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The U.S. benchmark opened directly on the 7517 support floor before staging a recovery to close firmly within our primary black ascending channel.

As outlined yesterday, we have introduced a new “decelerated” channel (drawn in red on our chart) which better approximates the current, more tempered pace of price action. The short-term trend is visibly losing some of its previous momentum, a shift clearly reflected in the shallower inclination of this red channel guiding recent intraday oscillations.

Consequently, we remain BULLISH on the index. Our risk management parameter has now transitioned to the downside boundary of the red channel; any violation of this structure, or a confirmed daily close below the critical 7517 support level, will serve as our absolute stop loss and invalidate the current setup.

Nasdaq 100 Index (NASDAQ:NDX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Similar to the S&P 500, the tech-heavy benchmark highlights a distinct loss of upward momentum. In today’s session, price action definitively broke below the short-term ascending channel we had been tracking since the beginning of April.

While we have mapped out an alternative channel that we believe will encapsulate the broader extension of the bullish trend, we are strictly adhering to our established risk parameters. Consequently, our trailing stop has been triggered, shifting our primary outlook back to a SIDEWAYS scenario.

We will re-engage our bullish bias only upon a confirmed upside breach of the horizontal resistance area at 30,767. Immediate structural support rests at 29,670; any downside violation of this support would be highly negative for the overall technical setup.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework As anticipated yesterday, the contract experienced a corrective session, grinding lower toward the support on the lower boundary of the ascending channel where price action has fluctuated throughout the entire oil crisis.

We have introduced a new blue trendline on the chart connecting the three sequential lows, which accurately explains the technical rebound observed over the last four sessions. Looking ahead, we continue to favor a deeper correction targeting the lower boundary of the overarching pattern (drawn in green on our chart).

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework As hinted yesterday, the technical setup was flashing a potential shooting star candlestick, and today’s price action officially confirms this bearish reversal pattern. This development solidifies our structural outlook following the channel breakout on May 27th and the subsequent pullback maneuver, which has now culminated in this validated shooting star rejection.

Consequently, we remain firmly BEARISH and expect the index to correct down toward our target in the 131.42 area. The invalidation parameter for this short scenario is clearly defined at the resistance area of 137.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The European benchmark contract extended for the second time in three sessions from the support area at 6031 to the resistance level at 6113, ultimately closing just below this threshold.

While it might appear reasonable to anticipate a continuation of the recent sideways consolidation, we maintain our view that the contract will eventually break above the 6113 resistance. Such a breakout would open the way to target the upper boundary of the long-term ascending channel, currently situated in the 6250 area.

As a result, we keep our BULLISH scenario active, maintaining our stop loss unchanged at the defined support level.

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework We reaffirm yesterday’s market commentary as the Italian contract continues to consolidate within the third distinct trading range of its broader structural rally toward all-time highs.

Price action remains well-contained inside the short-term ascending channel (drawn in black on our chart). The lower boundary of this structure will continue to serve as the baseline support and represent the absolute stop loss for our BULLISH scenario.

Furthermore, we are raising our primary upside resistance level to 50,640. From a structural perspective, it is worth highlighting that all three consecutive trading ranges within this multi-month ascent are completely equal in amplitude.

DAX Index (INDEX:DAX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The German benchmark index staged a first timid rebound precisely off the neckline.

To confirm the scenario outlined yesterday and fully validate the bullish head and shoulders pattern, price action would require a highly extended upward expansion. This continuation is necessary to reach our ultimate structural target—derived from projecting the pattern’s geometry—located in the 25,970 area.

We reiterate that this formation is highly atypical, as it developed immediately following a remarkably prolonged sideways consolidation trend rather than a traditional downtrend.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The U.S. 10-year yield experienced a mild retracement during today’s session. Crucially, the real body of the candlestick managed to close above our ascending trendline, which continues to mark the lower boundary of the large wedge formation we have extensively detailed in past reports.

As long as this trendline provides reliable support, we will firmly maintain our BULLISH scenario with our risk parameters unchanged. Additionally, the horizontal static support area at 4.434% remains a decisive pivot for the structural evolution of this technical framework.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework While intraday price movement remains limited, this corrective phase was graphically predictable based on our structural layout. Following the downside breakdown on May 15th, the pair executed a classic pullback maneuver that carried the exchange rate back to the lower boundary of the channel, colliding directly with the horizontal resistance in the 1.166 area.

Today’s session marks the resumption of this short-term bearish trend. On the downside, we expect immediate support in the 1.158 area, with our primary target locked at 1.155. A subsequent breach below these structural floors would severely damage the technical picture.

Consequently, we remain firmly BEARISH on the pair, keeping our strict invalidation stop fixed at the 1.166 resistance level.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The U.S. small-cap benchmark has returned to its all-time highs, validating a brief sideways consolidation phase over the last few sessions. Crucially, this short-term pause in momentum remains well-contained above the horizontal support area at 2887.

Consequently, we firmly reaffirm our BULLISH scenario. Our risk management strategy remains strictly unchanged, with our stop loss anchored directly at this primary support level.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

Daily & Commodity Markets Summary

Equity Indices

• S&P 500 (SPX): Underwent a healthy, sharp intraday correction but remains structurally bullish within its ascending channel above 7517 support, though its unprecedented vertical slope flags a shifting long-term monthly regime.

• Nasdaq 100 (NDX): Maintained superior relative strength compared to other benchmarks by avoiding a close at its session lows, firmly preserving its bullish trajectory within the black ascending channel.

• Euro Stoxx 50 (FESX): Experienced an intraday pullback but remains bullish above the 6031 broadening wedge support, though a breakdown of the newly drawn blue trendline would serve as an early warning sign.

• FTSE MIB Futures (FIB1!): Retraced back into its 49,460 – 50,405 consolidation range to downsize yesterday’s breakout, keeping a bullish stance managed by a tight stop at its short-term channel floor.

• DAX Index (DAX): Introduced a highly anomalous, large-scale inverse head and shoulders pattern following a multi-month sideways range, currently completing a technical pullback to its blue neckline.

• Russell 2000 (RUT): Completely erased its previous gains to slide back to the 2886 support level, keeping its bullish outlook intact but risking a deeper drop to its lower blue trendline if violated.

Commodities

• Brent Crude Oil (BRN1!): Logged a positive session but printed an exhaustion candle, pointing to an imminent corrective move back toward the lower boundary of its crisis-period ascending channel.

• Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM): Formed a potential shooting star candle right at the 137 resistance limit, keeping our primary bearish outlook active ahead of tomorrow’s vital confirmation.

Forex & Fixed Income

• U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y): Delivered a widely anticipated bounce off its lower wedge floor, setting up a potential extension higher to challenge the upper red trendline of its long-term triangle.

• Euro / U.S. Dollar (EURUSD): Resumed its short-term bearish momentum following a textbook pullback to the 1.166 resistance, with prices targeting the 1.158 and 1.155 structural floors next.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s correction is entirely healthy. The U.S. index remains inside our ascending channel and well above our key support in the 7517 area. As noted up until yesterday, while there were no explicit signs of a reversal, the candlestick structures revealed a clear loss of trend momentum, which had otherwise persisted at the same pace for 10 consecutive sessions. We also anticipated that the correction would be relatively sharp, as evidenced by today’s opening print coinciding with the session high and the closing print matching the session low.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, we expect a potential breach of the black ascending channel, but a substantial defense of the underlying support level (closing). Therefore, we remain BULLISH with our trailing stop unchanged at the aforementioned support. While the primary trend could simply lose some of its steepness and shift to a shallower trajectory (the red channel on our chart) while remaining structurally upward-sloping, we prefer to strictly execute our stop and shift back to a sideways scenario in the event of a confirmed breach of support on a closing basis.

Looking at the historical chart, the drawn structural channels clearly illustrate that the S&P 500 has never experienced such a vertical and steep trend in its history. This unprecedented slope underscores a highly extended technical condition.

To further evaluate this long-term framework, we also analyze the monthly chart. Based on this multi-timeframe perspective, our broader structural expectation is for a shifting market regime: we anticipate an index that will face wide, sharp corrections interspaced with numerous positive sessions characterized by limited price extension (narrow daily ranges).

Nasdaq 100 Index (NASDAQ:NDX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The Nasdaq 100 has also experienced a highly evident bullish reaction over recent months. However, as noted in various analyses across this Substack profile, this index continues to exhibit superior relative strength compared to other benchmarks. This outperformance is clearly visible in today’s candle, which—unlike the S&P 500—managed to defend its intra-day levels and did not settle at its session lows.

Regarding our operational framework, we remain firmly BULLISH and maintain our trailing stop at the ascending channel (in black on our chart). Any potential downside violations would likely recalibrate the primary trajectory; while the broader trend would remain structurally bullish, it would lose its current steep inclination and underlying force.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The futures contract logged another positive session, even though today’s candle clearly signals the exhaustion of the rebound initiated three days ago. We continue to anticipate a corrective move that will pull the contract back toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel, where it has fluctuated throughout the entirety of the oil crisis.

Furthermore, we remain committed to evaluating this future from a structural chart perspective; the price action remains highly coherent on the charts, even though we recognize that the instrument is heavily conditioned by external geopolitical factors.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The technical setup described yesterday is being tested to the absolute limit given today’s move above the aforementioned resistance in the 137 area. Today’s close settled slightly above this level and remains perched on the lower boundary of the channel drawn in red on our chart.

However, today’s session profile exhibits the characteristics of a potential shooting star candle. If validated, this pattern should generate the downside reversal we have been anticipating following the May 27th breakdown and subsequent pullback.

Consequently, our primary outlook remains BEARISH, and we await structural confirmation from tomorrow’s candle. Conversely, any clear daily close above this level would trigger our Stop and decisively invalidate the technical framework outlined so far.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Following the wide-ranging candle on June 2nd, the index experienced a broad intraday correction today. As noted yesterday, we anticipated a rebound off the upper boundary of the broadening wedge, and we continue to believe that this specific trendline will act as a valid support level.

The blue trendline we plotted today would represent the natural progression of the current move; however, we are well aware that the technical picture becomes significantly more complex whenever a broadening wedge pattern develops.

Consequently, we remain BULLISH and maintain our trailing stop at the 6031 support level, which coincides with the upper boundary of the wedge. That being said, a downside violation of our blue trendline as early as tomorrow would serve as an immediate warning sign.

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The Italian futures contract retraced back within the 49,460 – 50,405 range, formalizing the third consolidation zone as highlighted by the arrows on our chart. While yesterday’s breakout candle was initially interpreted as a clear sign of strength, today’s correction has completely downsized that momentum.

This price action reinforces our hypothesis that the contract is likely to drift lower to test the bottom boundary of the short-term ascending channel (in black). Consequently, we remain BULLISH and maintain a confirmed downside violation of this lower trendline as the strict stop loss for our scenario. Given the current lack of a sustained directional trend, we must continue to manage our risk with relatively tight trailing stops.

DAX Index (INDEX:DAX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today, we introduce the German benchmark index, which is currently carving out an anomalous inverse (bullish) head and shoulders pattern. This specific structure is quite unprecedented following an extended sideways trend like the one witnessed between May 2, 2025, and January 6, 2026.

The pattern is exceptionally large in scale and has recently executed a pullback maneuver following the breakout of its neckline (in blue on our chart). We will monitor the price action closely over the coming sessions to see if a strong bullish reaction materializes to validate this highly unusual formation.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

Fixed-Income Update: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (TVC:US10Y)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s reaction was widely anticipated. As noted yesterday, the U.S. 10-year yield was trading at the absolute limit of our outlined structural framework, tightly anchored to the lower boundary of the wedge pattern (drawn in black on our chart).

We believe that yields will continue to push higher from here, ultimately achieving a definitive upside breakout above the upper red trendline of the long-term triangular formation. Nonetheless, we maintain this same lower trendline as the strict trailing stop for our BULLISH scenario.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework While intraday price movement remains limited, this corrective phase was graphically predictable based on our structural layout. Following the downside breakdown on May 15th, the pair executed a classic pullback maneuver that carried the exchange rate back to the lower boundary of the channel, colliding directly with the horizontal resistance in the 1.166 area.

Today’s session marks the resumption of this short-term bearish trend. On the downside, we expect immediate support in the 1.158 area, with our primary target locked at 1.155. A subsequent breach below these structural floors would severely damage the technical picture.

Consequently, we remain firmly BEARISH on the pair, keeping our strict invalidation stop fixed at the 1.166 resistance level.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s price action completely negates yesterday’s gains, throwing the U.S. small-cap benchmark straight back down to the key support level in the 2886 area.

Despite this sharp reversal, we remain BULLISH for the time being. However, any confirmed downside violation of this support on a closing basis would serve as an immediate warning sign. Such a breakdown would likely pull the index back toward our blue trendline, which connects the recent swing lows formed during its ongoing oscillation within the broader, long-term ascending channel.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

Daily & Commodity Markets Summary

• S&P 500 (SPX): Maintained an inconclusive session with no reversal signals, preserving a bullish outlook despite heavy and visually tired daily candles.

• Nasdaq 100 (NDX): Logged a record close at all-time highs, confirming relentless structural momentum backed by a dominant streak of green daily sessions.

• Brent Crude Oil (BRN1!): Ended a choppy session slightly higher near key lower channel support, though a primary corrective drop toward the 89 area remains expected.

• Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM): Staged a technical pullback to the lower channel boundary, with the primary outlook calling for a resumption of the corrective phase.

• Euro Stoxx 50 (FESX): Executed a perfect pullback rebound off the broadening wedge ceiling but ultimately settled just below the 6113 resistance on a closing basis.

• FTSE MIB Futures (FIB1!): Printed a historic record high by decisively breaking above 50405, maintaining a steady bullish trend inside its short-term ascending channel.

• U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y): Remained anchored to its wedge floor where a technical rebound off 4.434% is anticipated, while a breakdown would shift targets toward 4.35%.

• Russell 2000 (RUT): Reacted strongly toward its upper long-term channel boundary, keeping a firm bullish stance ahead of a potential near-term sideways consolidation.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework

The S&P 500 experienced another relatively inconclusive session with no concrete reversal signals in sight. We maintain our BULLISH scenario, albeit with ongoing hesitation regarding the configuration of the daily candles. Although closing in positive territory, they do not express the powerful momentum that a short-term trend with this type of steep inclination should typically display.

Therefore, even in the absence of definitive reversal signals, we keep the exact same outlook and trailing stop for our scenario: a downside break of our ascending channel (in black on our chart) and, under any circumstance, a breach of the closest support in the 7518 area.

Nasdaq 100 Index (NASDAQ:NDX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The Nasdaq 100 closed at its highs, marking another record-breaking session. Since the March 31st lows, the index has registered 32 bullish (green) candles against just 12 bearish (red) candles. This structural footprint underscores the relentless momentum of the index, which has visibly accelerated its slope within an already established long-term upward trend.

We maintain our BULLISH scenario, keeping our trailing stop firmly fixed at a downside violation of the channel (in black on our chart).

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

Brent Crude Oil (ICE:BRN1!)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The futures contract ended a rather choppy session higher, marking—alongside the previous session—a tentative reaction near the support at the lower boundary of the channel (green on our chart) that we have monitored throughout the duration of the oil crisis.

We believe that, barring external factors that continue to influence the contract’s behavior, we will witness a correction extending at least toward the lower part of the channel in the 89 area.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The index registered another upward move along the lower boundary of our channel. We view this recent price action as a technical pullback following the breakout observed on May 27th.

Our primary scenario forecasts a resumption of the corrective phase that began precisely on May 27th. Conversely, an additional daily close above the 137 resistance level in the coming sessions would complicate the technical picture.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework As expected, we witnessed a rebound today off the upper boundary of the broadening wedge, perfectly executing the pullback maneuver we anticipated yesterday.

While the extension of the intraday price action serves as a clear sign of underlying strength, the index ultimately settled below the resistance at 6113 on a closing basis. We maintain our BULLISH outlook and keep our trailing stop unchanged at the 6031 support level.

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The contract delivered a decisive sign of strength by breaking above the resistance in the 50.405 area, printing a record close at all-time highs.

Since the March 30th lows, we count 27 bullish (green) candles against 16 bearish (red) candles. While this marks a substantial structural difference compared to the Nasdaq Index, the trend here kicked off with an initial acceleration followed by three distinct sideways ranges: the first lasting 15 candles, the second 12 candles, and—should tomorrow confirm a daily close above the aforementioned resistance level—a third consolidation range of just 8 candles.

Consequently, we firmly maintain our BULLISH scenario as we continue to follow the price action within the short-term ascending channel (in black on our chart).

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

Fixed-Income Update: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (TVC:US10Y)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s candle remains anchored to the lower boundary of our wedge. We maintain our primary outlook and expect a rebound off the 4.434% support level.

Conversely, any daily close violating this support would completely invalidate our current scenario, opening the door for deeper corrections toward 4.35% and 4.24%.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

The primary structural focus remains localized within the well-defined horizontal trading range bounded by resistance at 1.166 and support at 1.158. A definitive closing violation of either threshold is required to deliver a precise directional signal. Nonetheless, given the structural price action observed over the preceding weeks, our baseline expectation skews toward the development of a renewed corrective markdown phase upon exhaustion of the current consolidation.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The index delivered a highly positive reaction today, projecting the small-cap benchmark toward the upper boundary of the long-term ascending channel we have discussed at length.

Although this move brings the index very close to its upside target, we believe it will continue to climb, albeit with lower intensity, potentially entering a temporary sideways consolidation phase. Nevertheless, we remain firmly BULLISH and maintain our trailing stop at the support level in the 2887 area.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 (SP:SPX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The S&P 500 continues its short-term bullish trend without any significant pauses. However, we must take into account that the structure of the daily candles does not reflect uncontrolled momentum; on the contrary, the advance appears quite labored, which inherently increases the risk of a sharp correction.

Regardless, we continue to maintain the ascending channel (in black on our chart) as our key reference point and the trailing stop for our BULLISH scenario, with 7517 acting as the closest immediate support.

NDX – Nasdaq‑100 Index

Nasdaq 100 (NASDAQ:NDX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The Nasdaq 100 Index also continues its bullish trend within our channel (in black on our chart), which we will use as a reference point to identify any potential reversal signals. We remain BULLISH.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

Brent Crude Oil (ICE:BRN1!)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s attempt to reverse upward saw limited success, given the formation of today’s candle. We continue to believe that the futures contract could pull back to the base of the ascending channel within which it fluctuated throughout the entire oil crisis phase.

This channel structure remains characterized by a distinct internal two-wave corrective pattern. Our near-term downside target remains fixed at the 87.5 horizontal zone, ahead of the broader channel base test.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The Commodity Index is failing to break above the resistance in the 136.92 area. Recent price action could represent a pullback to the base of the red channel; in this case, we could see a correction down to the 131.42 support level.

Conversely, a re-entry into the channel would be highly positive, potentially driving the index up to the upper boundary of the pattern. We currently deem a downward move in the Commodity Index to be the more likely outcome.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

Euro Stoxx 50 Futures (EUREX:FESX)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The price action over the last few days can be interpreted as a pullback to the upper boundary of the broadening wedge. We expect an immediate rebound to reignite the upward trajectory, and we remain BULLISH.

Conversely, a definitive violation of the support in the 6030 area (specifically, an open and close below this level during the June 2nd session) would entirely invalidate this scenario.

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

FTSE MIB Futures (FIB1!)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The Italian futures contract appears to be completing a third sideways movement, which could pull the price down toward the lower bound of our reference channel (in black on the chart) before triggering a reaction.

We continue to maintain our upward bias; however, we will consider any violation of the lower boundary of the pattern as a signal of short-term trend exhaustion, which would consequently invalidate our BULLISH scenario.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (TVC:US10Y)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework Today’s rebound attempt appears highly unreliable. While we believe a bounce remains possible, it will be crucial to evaluate the resilience of the support in the 4.434% area.

Indeed, a breakdown below this level, combined with a violation of the trendline (in black on our chart), would completely invalidate the BULLISH scenario and open the door to downward targets toward 4.243%.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

The currency pair has executed another technical pullback today. However, the primary structural focus remains localized within the well-defined horizontal trading range bounded by resistance at 1.166 and support at 1.158. A definitive closing violation of either threshold is required to deliver a precise directional signal. Nonetheless, given the structural price action observed over the preceding weeks, our baseline expectation skews toward the development of a renewed corrective markdown phase upon exhaustion of the current consolidation.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

Russell 2000 Index (INDEX:RUT)

Technical Analysis & Operational Framework The upper boundary of the ascending channel (in red on our chart) is acting as resistance, rejecting the price back down to the first support level.

While we believe the index could bounce from these current levels and resume its upward trajectory, evaluating the resilience of the support in the 2885 area will be crucial.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

• S&P 500 (SPX): Clears the 7,520 ceiling to trigger a structural BULLISH scenario toward 7,700, trailing stops at the black channel base.

• NASDAQ 100 (NDX): Extends its advance within the un-decelerated March 31 channel, maintaining a firm BULLISH bias above 29,670.

• Brent Crude Oil (BRN1!): Logs a quiet session, drifting lower inside the two-wave “oil crisis” channel toward the 87.5 near-term target.

• Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM): Validates yesterday’s major breakdown via a low-volume pullback under the old channel, maintaining a BEARISH stance.

• Euro Stoxx 50 (FESX): Consolidates inside the 6,030–6,115 range at the wedge top; a close above 6,115 is required to activate a BULLISH view.

• FTSE MIB (FIB1!): Tracks a shallower, decelerating black channel on volume divergence, preserving a BULLISH stance above 49,345.

• U.S. 10-Year Yield (US10Y): Hits critical support at 4.434% (March 2026 trendline); a closing breach shifts the macro view to BEARISH.

• EUR/USD: Compresses within the 1.158–1.166 bracket post-pullback, with structural bias skewing toward an impending corrective breakdown.

• Russell 2000 (RUT): Advances smoothly inside its structural channel toward the 2,953 target, ahead of an expected pullback to 2,890.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

(SPX Index)

Tactical Stance: Bullish / Trend Extension Key Levels: Support/Stop: Black Channel Lower Boundary | Upside Target: 7,700 (Long-Term Channel Top)

Technical Commentary

From a structural perspective, the index has definitively abandoned its previous red ascending channel in favor of a new reference channel characterized by a shallower slope. This deceleration clearly illustrates a loss of momentum relative to the initial, near-vertical advance, though the broader bullish directionality remains intact. Today’s session successfully cleared the horizontal resistance level at 7,520, which had capped upside extensions over the prior two trading days. Following this decisive breakout above the previous local highs, we officially activate our structural BULLISH scenario. The protective stop-loss is strictly positioned at the downside violation of the newly defined black ascending channel. From a long-term horizon perspective, the primary objective for this upward extension remains the upper boundary of the macro ascending channel (marked in green on our chart), currently intersecting the 7,700 area.

NDX – Nasdaq‑100 Index

(NDX Index)

Tactical Stance: Bullish / Trend Continuation

Key Levels: Support/Stop: 29,670 | Channel Baseline: March 31 Lows

Technical Commentary

In line with yesterday’s commentary, the NASDAQ 100 continues to trade firmly within the boundaries of the ascending channel extending from the March 31 lows. Unlike other benchmarks, the technology index exhibits no visible signs of structural deceleration. Consequently, we maintain our BULLISH scenario and continue to monitor the tape for any meaningful signals that could alter the existing technical framework. Our protective stop-loss remains unchanged, anchored to the key horizontal support floor at 29,670.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

(BRN1! Futures)

Tactical Stance: Bearish / Trend Extension Key Levels: Near-Term Target: 87.5 | Structural Baseline: Channel Base

Technical Commentary

The futures contract logged a non-committal session today, exhibiting limited directional momentum. In line with our structural forecast, price action is progressively approaching the lower boundary of the descending channel that has defined the entire markdown phase since the onset of the “oil crisis.” This channel structure remains characterized by a distinct internal two-wave corrective pattern. Our near-term downside target remains fixed at the 87.5 horizontal zone, ahead of the broader channel base test.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

(BCOM Index)

Tactical Stance: Bearish / Pullback Validation

Key Levels: Resistance: Previous Channel Base | Primary Downside Targets: 131.4 | 129.0

Technical Commentary

Following the major downside breakout of the ascending channel extending from the March 9 highs, today’s price action executed a technical pullback to test the underbelly of the breached channel baseline. This corrective retest has developed on light volume, failing to reclaim the previous structural boundary. Consequently, we interpret this movement as a classic validation of the breakdown. We maintain our BEARISH scenario, anticipating a resumption of the downward extension toward our primary structural targets over the coming sessions targeting the horizontal support floors at 131.4 and 129.0, the latter aligning with the long-term ascending trendline marked in red on our chart.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

(FESX Futures)

Tactical Stance: Neutral / Range-bound Consolidation

Key Levels: Resistance: 6,115 | Support/Stop: 6,030 | Upper Boundary: Broadening Wedge

Technical Commentary

Today’s wide intraday price action drove the European futures contract back to test the upper trendline of the broadening wedge structure highlighted in our previous weekly notes. Despite this intraday expansion, both the opening and closing prints remained confined within the defined 6,030 to 6,115 range. This technical boundary currently anchors a sideways consolidation phase that has exhibited less upward momentum than initially anticipated. Consequently, we maintain a neutral stance within this range-bound compression; a clean, daily closing violation above the key horizontal resistance ceiling at 6,115 is required to officially trigger our structural BULLISH scenario.

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

(FIB1! Futures)

Tactical Stance: Bullish / Trend Deceleration

Key Levels: Support/Stop: 49,345 | Channel Baseline: New Black Channel Base

Technical Commentary

In alignment with the structural dynamics observed on the S&P 500, we are currently tracking a new ascending channel characterized by a shallower slope, reflecting a clear deceleration in trend momentum. As highlighted in yesterday’s commentary, despite the downside breach of the previous accelerated channel, our broader scenario remains firmly BULLISH. Consequently, we maintain our protective stop-loss anchored to the horizontal support floor at 49,345 or, alternatively, a definitive violation of the lower boundary of the new black reference channel. We continue to closely monitor volume dynamics to gauge the structural health and sustainability of this decelerating advance.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

(US10Y)

Tactical Stance: Neutral/Bullish at Critical Support

Key Levels: Structural Pivot/Stop: 4.434% | Macro Downside Targets: 4.35% | 4.24%

Technical Commentary

Today’s corrective markdown extended precisely to the critical support floor at 4.434%, which conjoins with the long-term ascending trendline anchoring the higher-low sequence generated since the March 2, 2026 lows. This structural junction represents an exceptionally important inflection zone and serves as the final technical threshold to catalyze a defensive bounce. Conversely, a definitive daily closing violation of this boundary would completely invalidate the multi-month constructive framework, shifting our macro long-term scenario to BEARISH and exposing deeper structural targets.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

(EUR/USD Cross)

Tactical Stance: Neutral / Range-bound Compression

Key Levels: Resistance: 1.166 | Support: 1.158 | Crucial Downside Cluster: 1.155 - 1.158

Technical Commentary

The currency pair has executed another technical pullback today. However, the primary structural focus remains localized within the well-defined horizontal trading range bounded by resistance at 1.166 and support at 1.158. A definitive closing violation of either threshold is required to deliver a precise directional signal. Nonetheless, given the structural price action observed over the preceding weeks, our baseline expectation skews toward the development of a renewed corrective markdown phase upon exhaustion of the current consolidation.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

(RUT Index)

Tactical Stance: Bullish / Approaching Target

Key Levels: Near-Term Target: 2,953 | Support/Correction Floor: 2,890

Technical Commentary

The small-cap index continues its long-term structural advance, trading precisely within the boundaries of the ascending channel defined over the preceding sessions. The primary upside objective is now in close proximity, currently marked by the horizontal resistance level at 2,953. Upon reaching this terminal target, we anticipate the development of a healthy technical correction; this potential markdown phase should find solid structural support anchored to the lower demand zone in the 2,890 area.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

• S&P 500 (SPX): Consolidates unchanged directly against the key horizontal resistance ceiling at 7,517.

• NASDAQ 100 (NDX): Prints new intraday highs before flattening, preserving the short-term bullish view above 29,670.

• Brent Crude Oil (BRN1!): Negates the Bullish Harami, extending its structural markdown toward the historical channel base.

• Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM): Triggers a major downside breakdown, invalidating yesterday’s candle to activate a structural bearish scenario.

• Euro Stoxx 50 (FESX): Fails to confirm the Bearish Harami, maintaining a moderately bullish stance above 6,030.

• FTSE MIB (FIB1!): Breaches the blue channel on price/volume divergence, shifting our tactical reference to the new black channel.

• U.S. 10-Year Yield (US10Y): Holds above the black wedge trendline from March 2026 lows, awaiting a tactical bounce.

• EUR/USD: Delivers an insignificant, range-bound session, compressing sideways within the 1.158 – 1.166 band.

• Russell 2000 (RUT): Pauses in a brief consolidation phase, maintaining a constructive posture above the 2,885 floor.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

(SPX Index)

Tactical Stance: Neutral / Range-bound Key Levels: Resistance: 7,517 | Downside Target: Ascending Channel Base

The S&P 500 logged another non-committal, range-bound session, opening and closing virtually unchanged directly against the key horizontal resistance ceiling at 7,517. The index currently lacks the directional momentum required to trigger our structural BULLISH view. Concurrently, we note an absence of immediate distribution signs that would point to an impending corrective phase. Should a tactical pullback materialize, the primary downside target remains the lower boundary of the well-defined ascending channel frequently highlighted in our recent notes. For now, we adopt a sideways scenario, awaiting a decisive directional break to resolve the current price congestion over the coming sessions.

NDX – Nasdaq‑100 Index

(NDX Index)

Tactical Stance: Bullish / Consolidating Key Levels: Support/Stop: 29,670 | Channel Baseline: March 31 Lows

The NASDAQ 100 logged an interlocutory session, registering new intraday highs before finishing the trading day unchanged. We maintain our short-term bullish scenario, with the protective stop-loss positioned on the support area at 29,670 or, alternatively, on the lower boundary of the short-term black ascending channel in place since the March 31 lows

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

(BRN1! Futures)

Tactical Stance: Bearish / Trend Extension Key Levels: Downside Target: Long-Term Channel Base

Today’s price action fails to confirm the candlestick configuration mentioned yesterday (Bullish Harami). On the contrary, the prevailing bearish trend persists. In line with our previous commentary, the primary downside target remains the lower boundary of the channel within which the futures contract has oscillated throughout the entire “oil crisis” period.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

(BCOM Index)

Tactical Stance: Bearish / Directional Breakdown

Key Levels: Support Targets: 131.4 | 129.0 (Long-Term Ascending Trendline)

The index executed a highly significant downside breakout today, extending the prevailing negative trend. While we anticipated a potential technical bounce off the lower boundary of the channel, this clean breach provides a precise directional signal of weakness. Concurrently, today’s price action invalidates yesterday’s candlestick configuration, which failed to receive the required formal confirmation. Consequently, we activate our structural BEARISH scenario, targeting the horizontal support floors at 131.4 and 129.0, the latter aligning with the long-term ascending trendline marked in red on our chart.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

(FESX Futures)

Tactical Stance: Moderately Bullish Key Levels: Resistance: 6,115 | Support/Stop: 6,030

Today’s price action, despite exhibiting a wide intraday range between the high and low, fails to confirm the Bearish Harami candlestick pattern described yesterday. A pronounced volume divergence has induced a clear pause in the prevailing trend; while the European futures contract registered new intraday highs, it subsequently reversed to close below the key horizontal resistance ceiling at 6,115. We maintain a moderately BULLISH scenario, as structural breakouts from a broadening wedge typically generate extended directional extensions. However, the 6,030 area remains our defined support boundary and strict protective stop-loss level.

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

(FIB1! Futures)

Tactical Stance: Bullish / Trend Deceleration Key Levels: Support/Stop: 49,345 | Channel Baseline: New Black Channel Base

The downside breakout of the ascending channel provides an initial signal of a prevailing uptrend that is losing both momentum and its structural slope. This deceleration is clearly visible and develops as a direct consequence of a price-to-volume divergence. Accordingly, our primary reference structure shifts to the black channel. While the downside breach of the previous blue channel justifies the execution of a protective stop-loss, we choose to maintain our BULLISH scenario, positioning our protective stop on the horizontal support floor at 49,345 or, alternatively, on the lower boundary of the new reference structure marked in black on our chart.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

(US10Y)

Tactical Stance: Bullish / At Structural Support Key Levels: Support/Bounce Zone: 4.43% | Downside Targets: 4.35% | 4.24%

Today’s opening and closing prints sustained their position above the lower trendline of the black wedge constructed to track the entire structural advance from the March 2, 2026 lows. We anticipate that this trendline should act as a reliable support boundary and catalyze a technical reaction. In the event of deeper intraday extension, the 4.43% level marks the final viable support floor to trigger a defensive bounce. Conversely, a definitive downside violation of this boundary would completely invalidate the current framework, shifting the macro scenario to significantly negative and exposing the subsequent structural support baselines at 4.35% and 4.24%.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

(EUR/USD Cross)

Tactical Stance: Neutral / Range-bound Key Levels: Resistance: 1.1662 | Support Range: 1.155 - 1.158

The currency pair delivered an insignificant session today, consolidating after yesterday’s price action tested the lower boundary of the descending channel, registering an intraday high at 1.1662. We anticipate the exchange rate will remain range-bound, fluctuating sideways within the defined 1.158 to 1.166 band. Conversely, a definitive downside breach of the dual support cluster anchored between 1.155 and 1.158 would shift the structural scenario to significantly negative, signaling further downside extension.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

(RUT Index)

Tactical Stance: Bullish / Consolidating Key Levels: Resistance: Channel Top | Support/Stop: 2,885

Following yesterday’s significant, high-momentum extension, the small-cap index entered a consolidation phase today. This near-term pause does not alter our broader structural framework, which remains firmly BULLISH. While the upper boundary of the red ascending channel marked on our chart is in close proximity, limiting immediate upside headroom, the constructive technical posture is preserved. Consequently, we maintain our bullish scenario, with the protective stop-loss anchored to the horizontal support floor at 2,885.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

• S&P 500 (SPX): Invalidates yesterday’s bearish pattern by closing on the 7,518 resistance, but we remain neutral pending a definitive bullish breakout.

• NASDAQ 100 (NDX): Breaks above the 29,670 resistance ceiling, activating our bullish outlook toward the upper boundary of the short-term black channel.

• Brent Crude Oil (BRN1!): Prints a Bullish Harami that requires confirmation tomorrow, but we maintain our bearish target toward the channel floor in the 87 area.

• Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM): Registers a potential Inverted Hammer near the channel base at 136.25, awaiting formal validation from tomorrow’s session.

• Euro Stoxx 50 (FESX): Perfects a Bearish Harami that requires confirmation, but we maintain the bullish scenario triggered by the broadening wedge with a stop at 6,031.

• FTSE MIB (FIB1!): Executes a highly negative session on declining volumes, but we stay bullish inside the blue channel as long as the 49,460 static support holds.

• US10Y: Suffers a sharp correction by dropping back inside the pattern without a pullback, opening up further extension down to the 4.46% / 4.43% area.

• Russell 2000 (RUT): Invalidates the bearish hypothesis and reopens a tactical bullish scenario toward 2,951 after clearing the key resistance at 2,887.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

(SPX Index)

S&P 500 (SPX) – Daily Analysis: Today printed a positive session with a limited intraday range, culminating in a close right on the key static resistance area at 7,518. We continue to wait for a more convincing directional signal before officially activating our BULLISH view. Crucially, today's price action marks a definitive negation of yesterday's bearish shooting star configuration. As highlighted in yesterday's commentary, the bearish reversal pattern required today's candle to confirm by closing below the body of the previous one; the market's failure to do so delivers a significant demonstration of underlying strength, though it remains non-definitive until a clean upside breakout is achieved.

NDX – Nasdaq‑100 Index

(NDX Index)

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – Daily Analysis: Today witnessed a clean upside breakout of the key resistance area at 29,670. The Nasdaq continues to establish itself as the index with the absolute highest bullish momentum—and matching volatility—across global equity markets. This decisive signal officially activates our BULLISH outlook, setting our primary target at the upper boundary of the short-term ascending channel (marked in black on our chart). Conversely, our risk management protocol places the stop loss for this tactical scenario right at the newly established support floor of 29,670, or more conservatively, upon a definitive structural breakdown below the floor of the black channel itself.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

(BRN1! Futures)

Brent Crude Oil (BRN1!) – Daily Analysis: Today’s session printed a classic two-candle reversal pattern known as a Bullish Harami. Within an established bearish trajectory, this setup typically hints at an impending trend reversal, but it strictly requires confirmation—specifically, tomorrow’s session must open and close cleanly above the real body of the first (bearish) candle. Consequently, we remain on hold ahead of tomorrow’s price action to filter out a potential false signal. We maintain our primary structural conviction that the futures contract remains geared toward reaching the lower boundary of the macro cyclical channel (the 87 area) that has defined the entire trend throughout the oil crisis period so far.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

(BCOM Index)

Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) – Daily Analysis: Today's price action printed a potential Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern at the tail end of an established short-term bearish trend. This bullish reversal hypothesis is strongly reinforced by the index's immediate proximity to the primary channel floor (the 136.25 area) outlined in our structural macro reports. However, validation is strictly required before adjusting our stance: tomorrow's session must deliver at least a clean close above the real body of today's candle to confirm the pattern and filter out a potential false breakdown.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

(FESX Futures)

Euro Stoxx 50 (FESX) – Daily Analysis: Today’s session printed a short-term bearish candlestick pattern known as a Bearish Harami. Here too, formal confirmation will be strictly necessary (specifically, a close tomorrow below the real body of the previous candle) to filter out a potential false reversal signal. Yesterday’s powerful breakout of the Broadening wedge officially triggered our structural BULLISH outlook, a tactical scenario we firmly maintain with our risk-management stop placed at the key support floor in the 6,031 area.

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

(FIB1! Futures)

FTSE MIB (FIB1!) – Daily Analysis: Today’s session delivered a highly negative price movement, temporarily stalling the upward momentum activated yesterday. However, the index remains strictly contained within the boundaries of the short-term ascending channel (marked in blue on our chart). Consequently, we maintain our BULLISH outlook, placing our protective stop loss upon a clean downside violation of the channel floor or, in any event, a definitive break below the 49,460 structural support boundary. Caution is warranted, however, as a clear decreasing trend in trading volumes could introduce some near-term weakness or extended consolidation.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

(US10Y)

US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield) – Daily Analysis: Today’s session delivered a marked correction, forcing the 10-year yield to drop straight back inside the previous chart pattern without executing the expected technical pullback and bounce. While a tactical cool-off in yields was fully anticipated, the depth and velocity of today’s decline were far more pronounced than projected. At this juncture, the downward momentum could extend further down toward the structural support zone locked between 4.46% and 4.43%, a vital baseline where we strongly anticipate a solid technical reaction and a defensive bounce.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

(Euro / US Dollar)

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis: The pair has executed a slight pullback toward the black trendline located at the base of the channel. Should it resume its directional move, the next structural target is locked at 1.155, whereas a clean re-entry back into the channel would completely invalidate this tactical scenario.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

(RUT Index)

Russell 2000 (RUT) – Daily Analysis: Today’s massive demonstration of underlying strength completely invalidates the potential bearish head and shoulders formation. As a reminder, this bearish structural hypothesis would have only been verified and activated upon a clean downside breach of the 2,735 neckline; today’s opening and closing prints have thoroughly shattered that setup. Conversely, the decisive upside breakout of the static resistance area we highlighted at 2,887 reopens immediate BULLISH scenarios, even if near-term extension appears somewhat constrained compared to its large-cap peers. We anticipate the index will now grind upward toward the upper boundary of its long-term ascending channel, currently sitting at 2,951, before entering a consolidation phase or steadily tracking the channel’s ceiling.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

(SPX Index)

S&P 500 (SPX) – Daily Analysis: Attention: today’s candle appears to be a shooting star, a bearish reversal pattern that requires confirmation from tomorrow’s session, which would need to close below today’s low (7,463.29). Since this candle has developed in close proximity to the critical static resistance area at 7,517.87, it will be crucial tomorrow to monitor for potential corrections, particularly a downside breakout of the long-term ascending channel. We remain Neutral: we will activate a Bullish view only upon a definitive upside breakout of the 7,517 resistance, whereas a breakdown of the channel would act as the initial Bearish signal confirming the shooting star.

NDX – Nasdaq‑100 Index

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) – Daily Analysis: The Nasdaq chart strongly mirrors the SPX setup. Today's candle prints a doji version of a shooting star (clearly visible inside the red circle), marking a sharp intraday rejection. We are currently sitting right at the lower boundary of the steep black ascending channel, while simultaneously trading just below the key static resistance at 29,669.55—a level that would instantly reactivate our BULLISH view upon an upside breakout. Conversely, a downside violation of the channel will flash an initial warning sign, though we will wait for a clean breach of the structural horizontal support at 28,624.09 before formally activating a BEARISH position.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

(BRN1! Futures)

BRN1! (Brent Crude Oil Futures) – Technical Analysis: Our outlook from the past few days is fully confirmed. Despite the presence of geopolitical and external catalysts impacting pricing, the future has spent the entire oil crisis period moving reliably within its established channel, executing what we define as a distinct “double wave” pattern that has now played out twice on the chart. As previously anticipated, we expect the contract to extend its current downside drift toward the 87 area, which marks the structural floor of the channel.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

(BCOM Index)

BCOM (Bloomberg Commodity Index) – Technical Analysis: The short-term bearish trend confirmed last Friday continues to play out. Despite the validation of the recent double top pattern, we anticipate that the index will extend its downside trajectory toward the bottom of its channel, which is currently targeted at the 136.25 level.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

(FESX Futures)

Euro Stoxx 50 (FESX) – Daily Analysis: Attention: the European future is breaking out of the pattern we have repeatedly described as a broadening wedge. We interpret this signal as highly directional, further supported by today’s candle closing near its session highs and above the previous peak resistance at 6,113. As previously anticipated, we are officially activating our BULLISH scenario, expecting this upward expansion to extend toward the upper boundary of the long-term channel (marked in black on our chart).

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

(FIB1! Futures)

FTSE MIB (FIB1!) – Daily Analysis: Friday’s close back inside the channel (marked in blue on our chart) provided an excellent signal of underlying trend strength, setting the stage to activate our upward outlook. Therefore, following the clear breakout of our static resistance area at 49,460, we officially return BULLISH. While we acknowledge the tactical risk of a minor pullback to retest the broken structural boundary, we firmly confirm our positive view; conversely, a downside violation of the channel floor would serve as an immediate warning sign.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

(U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield)

US10Y (U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield) – Daily Analysis: Today we witnessed the expected pullback movement that we highlighted in yesterday’s commentary. Looking ahead, we anticipate a technical bounce off the base of the macro triangle (marked by the red descending trendline), which is currently merging with the steep black ascending trendline to form a highly significant support confluence around the 4.55% area.

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD

(Euro / US Dollar)

EUR/USD – Daily Analysis: The pair is executing a slight pullback toward the black trendline located at the base of the channel. Should it resume its directional move, the next structural target is locked at 1.155, whereas a clean re-entry back into the channel would completely invalidate this tactical scenario.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

RUSSELL 2000

(RUT Index)

Russell 2000 (RUT) – Daily Analysis: Today’s candle reveals the first clear signs of trend exhaustion for the small-cap index. In the event of an impending correction, the price action could potentially form and validate a bearish double top pattern, establishing 2,583 as our primary downside target

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

SPX: We remain neutral within the shallow‑slope rising channel, ready to turn bullish above 7,517 or bearish below 7,274 (after the gap has been filled).

NDX: Sideways phase while awaiting directional signals: above 29,670 the bullish scenario reactivates, whereas a return to 28,625 risks completing a bearish head‑and‑shoulders pattern.

RUT: The index rebounds from support at 2,735, potentially forming the right shoulder of a bearish head‑and‑shoulders pattern; this structure would instead be invalidated by a break above resistance at 2,886.

FESX: Elevated intraday volatility continues within the megaphone pattern, with a neutral strategy awaiting a directional breakout through 6,030 or 5,695.

FIB1: First test of resistance at 49,460 which, if broken on a daily close, will activate the bullish scenario, while the key long‑term support remains anchored at 48,045.

BRN1: The short‑term corrective trajectory within the rising channel is confirmed, with futures prices now pointing toward the lower boundary of the structure near the 90 area.

BCOM: The bearish scenario is officially triggered after the completion of the small reversal pattern, with a target identified at the lower portion of the rising channel.

US10Y: The technical pullback continues toward the upper boundary of the long‑term red triangle, a chart level from which a bullish reaction in yields is expected.

EUR/USD: An indecisive session that keeps the short‑term negative trend intact, heading toward the double‑top target located in the 1.158 / 1.155 area.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

SPX: We continue to monitor the short-term trend within the newly identified rising channel (marked in black on our chart). Although this channel features four points of contact that are not perfectly alternated, it successfully illustrates a short-term trend that has lost some of its vertical momentum (slope) but may have already restarted following this brief consolidation phase.

For now, we maintain our sideways tactical outlook. However, a clean breakout above the resistance area at 7,517 will officially activate our bullish scenario. Conversely, a downside breakout of the channel will flash an initial warning sign, and we will activate a full bearish scenario upon a breakdown below the 7,274 support level (which would also occur after completely filling the previously highlighted open gap).

NDX – Nasdaq‑100 Index

“NDX: The Nasdaq is also reacting positively off the lower boundary of the rising channel (marked in black on our chart). In this case as well, we are maintaining our sideways outlook as we await a definitive upside breakout above the resistance area at 29,670.

Conversely, if the index were to retrace back down to the 28,625 support level, this zone would shift into the neckline of a minor head-and-shoulders pattern, which would ultimately activate our bearish scenario. For the time being, we remain on standby, waiting for clear directional signals.

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

BRN1!: Despite today's extended intraday volatility, the short-term trend direction is fully confirmed. The pattern has now repeated the exact same structural movement twice within the rising channel that has characterized the entire duration of the oil crisis. Although the previous correction was initiated via a gap down, we still anticipate that the future could drift lower, targeting the bottom of the formation, which currently sits around the 90 level.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

BCOM: Today's price action confirms the ongoing correction and prints a small bearish double top pattern , which projects a target precisely at the lower boundary of the rising channel. Although the target is relatively close to current levels, we are officially activating our bearish scenario, aiming for the bottom of the channel formation

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

"FESX: Today delivered another session characterized by wide intraday volatility—a price behavior highly typical of candles developing inside a broadening formation (megaphone pattern). As anticipated over the previous days, we maintain our sideways tactical stance and await a definitive breakout from this structure. A clean breach of either the 6,030 resistance level or the 5,695 support level would serve as the first reliable signal marking the start of a new directional trend, which we would then actively follow.

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

FIB1!: Driven by wide intraday volatility, the Italian future has made its first attempt to break above the 49,460 resistance area we highlighted yesterday. In this case as well, we are maintaining our sideways outlook for now. However, we are closely monitoring the edges of this range: we will evaluate a bullish transition upon an upside breakout with a confirmed daily close above 49,460, while simultaneously watching for a potential bearish trigger should the 48,045 support level break to the downside.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield.

US10Y: As anticipated yesterday, the pullback movement continues, steering the U.S. 10-Year yield back toward the upper boundary of the long-term triangle formation (marked in red on our chart). Once yields test this structural level, we could expect a bullish reaction and a potential bounce off this newly established support

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD: Another transitional, indecisive session. The short-term trend is undoubtedly negative and could still extend further down toward the support area at 1.158 / 1.155. The structural target of the double top pattern, which was completed back on May 15th, remains anchored near the 1.155 area.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

RUT: Russell 2000. The index has bounced off the 2,735 support level. At this juncture, two distinct technical paths are emerging: the index could rally to form the right shoulder of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, with its neckline resting precisely at 2,735; alternatively, it could break above the resistance area at 2,886, invalidating this potential topping structure. A clean upside break above 2,886 would officially trigger our bullish view, whereas the confirmation and breakdown of the head-and-shoulders pattern would justify activating a bearish scenario.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

SPX: Yesterday's and today's candles define a new rising channel which, compared to the previous one, features a less vertical slope, though it has not yet reverted to the trajectory of the main long-term trend. Based on this new bullish formation, we can anticipate a resumption of the short-term uptrend. From an operational standpoint, this setup will be officially confirmed only upon a definitive breakout above the resistance area at 7,520, aligned with the previous all-time highs.

NDX – Nasdaq‑100 Index

NDX: Today's candle has allowed us to identify a rising channel which, unlike the S&P 500, originates from the March 31st lows. It features four distinct points of contact, though they are not perfectly alternated. We will use this technical pattern as our primary reference for identifying the trend. Currently, the U.S. index is locked within a range between 28,625 and 29,670. The latter represents the resistance level whose breakout would reactivate a new bullish scenario; conversely, a break below 28,625 would confirm the neckline of a triple top formation

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

BRN1!: Today's pullback could mark the beginning of a broader correction down toward the lower boundary of the rising channel that has characterized the entire duration of the oil crisis. We reiterate that despite the relatively linear movement within this formation, the future's price action will ultimately remain highly dependent on external, non-market factors.

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

BCOM: Today's movement reached our second support area at 140.1. As anticipated over the past few days, we believe the index is capable of holding these support levels. Conversely, a definitive downside breakout below 140 would activate a bearish scenario, targeting the lower boundary of the channel, which is currently located near the 136 area.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

"FESX: Today's extended rally has driven the European future back toward the upper trendline of the broadening wedge (megaphone) pattern. We confirm our analysis from previous days: the critical resistance level stands at 6,030, a breakout of which would trigger a bullish scenario with a target at 6,230. Meanwhile, key support remains anchored at 5,770 / 5,695

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

FIB1!: The Italian future has rallied back toward the upper boundary of its current range. As noted over the past few days, we remain locked within a well-defined sideways trend that has persisted for several sessions between the support area at 48,045 and the resistance zone at 49,345 / 49,460. A clean breakout above this upper resistance cluster would officially activate a new bullish scenario.

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield.

US10Y: Today's candle completely retraced yesterday's advance, pulling yields back down toward the upper boundary of the long-term triangle formation (marked in red on our chart). Structurally, this price action could represent a classic pullback movement to test the broken resistance as new support

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD: The pair has completed a double top formation within the channel we analyzed over the past few days. The structural target of this pattern is located in the 1.155 area. A brief, limited pullback movement prior to the extension remains possible before the downside target is reached.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

RUT: Russell 2000. The U.S. small-cap index has bounced precisely off the 2,735 support level we flagged yesterday. In the event of a renewed correction back down to this support, the index could complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. Conversely, it could extend today's upward momentum all the way to the upper boundary of the long-term rising channel (marked in red on our chart) near the 2,940 area

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.

SPX – S&P 500 Index

SPX: We are outlining the long-term view of the U.S. index below to demonstrate how the price action over the past few weeks was effectively driven by a true trend acceleration, which pushed the index beyond the upper boundary of its rising channel. However, when viewed from a long-term perspective, this type of parabolic extension is inherently unsustainable. Structurally, a pause and a moderate correction were highly anticipated.

Naturally, when a trend displays such powerful directionality and momentum, the most prudent approach is to simply follow the rising channel, with the outlook changing only upon a downside breakout. Today’s price action fully validates the strategic adjustment we made yesterday. Finally, we highlight an open gap between 7,295 and 7,275. Our tactical view remains sideways

NDX – Nasdaq‑100 Index

NDX: In this case as well, we are highlighting the long-term trend within the rising channel that has been active since the October 2022 lows. Here, the upside breakout is even more pronounced. Today’s candle extended all the way down to the 28,625 support level we previously flagged. From a chart perspective, this level also acts as the neckline of a small double top pattern, which could potentially trigger a correction back toward the upper boundary of the main channel.

A definitive downside breakout below 28,625 will activate our bearish scenario, with an initial target at 27,630. For the time being, we maintain our sideways outlook

BRN1! – Brent Crude Futures

BRN1!: The technical picture remains substantially unchanged. The trend continues to hold within the rising channel that has tracked the entire duration of the oil crisis. We confirm our observations from yesterday: precisely within this channel, there are two distinct double-wave movements plotted on the chart. If this structural pattern repeats, the logical target should be near the previous highs. However, we continue to emphasize that this future's price action remains heavily conditioned by external market events

BCOM – Bloomberg Commodity Index

BCOM: We confirm our analysis from yesterday. The price remains very close to the upper boundary of the channel, and the previous resistance area at 140.7 now acts as a solid support level. Looking ahead, we expect the asset to maintain a sideways consolidation phase with a slight upward bias, allowing it to sustain its position near the top of the formation.

FESX Future EURO STOXX 50 EUR

FESX: We confirm what we wrote yesterday and we confirm also our sideways view. The critical support remains at 5,770. The trend is moving, with wide fluctuations, inside this broadening wedge formation. While it is always highly difficult to precisely gauge short-term movements within such a pattern, for the long-term trend, this is clearly a consolidation phase.

FTSEMIB – FTSE MIB 40 FUTURE

FIB1!: We correctly interpreted yesterday's price action despite the index managing to hold within its channel. Today's movement fully validates that call. We firmly reiterate our sideways outlook and maintain the exact same operational boundaries: support at 48,045 and resistance at 49,345

US10Y – U.S. Treasury Bond 10‑Year Yield

US10Y: Today delivered another significant extension toward the resistance cluster at 4.66% and 4.667%, fully confirming the powerful upside breakout witnessed on Friday. The clean bullish breakout of the consolidation triangle active since March 2023 structurally projects the U.S. 10-Year yield toward much higher targets. At this stage, the 4.81% mark appears highly achievable

EUR/USD – Euro vs U.S. Dollar

EUR/USD: The trend remains firmly sideways as we are not seeing any distinct directional signals. It will be crucial for the price to hold above the support area at 1.158 and stay below the resistance zone at 1.181. Consequently, our outlook remains unchanged and neutral.

RUSSELL 2000 (Small cap Index)

RUT: The Russell 2000 index of U.S. small caps has retraced precisely back to our critical support area at 2,735. The defense of this level will be highly significant for the short-term structure. A definitive breakdown below this support would trigger a deeper correction, projecting the index toward the lower boundary of its primary rising channel, currently located near 2,520.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects my opinions as of the publication date. It is not investment advice, legal advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. I may hold positions in securities discussed, and my views may change without notice. Readers should do their own work and consult their own advisors before making investment decisions.